Jan 312014
 

Hole # 18 Chipper’s SB XLVIII Pick

It’s been almost two weeks and I darn near forgot how to do this!!  I haven’t really paid too much attention to all the hoopla going on this last couple weeks but I can tell you that being out here on the East Coast, you can’t walk down the street without overhearing a conversation about this game Sunday night.  Regardless of the fact that the contest is between to almost West Coast teams, the marquee value of Peyton Manning is global and because Richard Sherman ran his mouth and Marshawn Lynch can’t put twelve words together, the intrigue is growing daily.  You’ve heard all the chatter about the best Defense on the planet and it’s attempt to be able to control the record setting offense in Denver.  There’s lot’s of angles and discussions about what will happen.  My dad was a crazy defensive killer linebacker back in the day (could have played for the Colts with Johnny U) and he reminds me that defense can play anywhere in any conditions.  Pop, I know that Seattle is as good a defensive unit as has ever been.  They led the league with 28 interceptions and in all of their games, held the opposing offenses to only 273.6 total yards per game.  They tallied 44 sacks (8th best in the league) and only let teams score an amazingly low 14.4 points per game.  In the playoffs, the Seahawks have allowed only 16 points in two games, both at home.  Now on the road they’re a little more Sea-Pigeon like:  The D has allowed just under 292 yards per game, with a big 4.2 yards per carry rushing.  That bodes well for a better than average Denver rushing attack.  This game will be totally different for Seattle as not one player on the roster has any Super Bowl experience.  Can young QB Russell stand up to the pressure?  He cannot get into a shooting match with Manning.  As good as Seattle’s defense is, they haven’t played an offense with this many weapons.  Denver is at full capacity – remember that two of their offensive line starters have been out all year – and looks like it would take 14 guys on defense to cover all of the possible targets coming at them.  You know all the names and know that the Denver offense is the best statistically in the history of the game.  The old Man(ning) has seen it all and I doubt he will not be concerned with butterflies in the belly come kick-off.  The key to this game, in my estimation, is how successful Denver’s defense is at containing Russell Wilson and Lynch.  I don’t see Seattle scoring more than 17-20 points and that’s not gonna cut it.  The Seahawk defense will have it’s work cut out for them on Sunday.  I believe that the Broncos will control the clock with precision passing and timely delayed runs and counters to move the sticks.  It’s important that touchdowns be scored and not to settle for red zone field goals.  Unless you didn’t know already, this is the Chinese Year of the Horse – it’s written in the stars my friends…Today is the 3rd anniversary of my dear mothers passing and you know that she’s gonna get that trophy to Peyton and my beloved Denver Broncos for the 3rd time in their storied history….so just in case you didn’t catch my drift, here’s my vision -

Prediction:    Broncos 27, Seahawks 20

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 Posted by at 9:49 pm
Jan 212014
 

Two decent games by the 4 top teams in the league.  San Francisco had the Seahawks dead to rights and costly turnovers and questionable calls snatched victory from their hands!  Denver was never in any danger as the most prolific offense in NFL history did what it does very well to reach the organizations 7th trip to the Championship Game.  We have a two week break so enjoy the college basketball as most teams head into the second half of the season and get ready for the Big Tournament.  Stay tuned for any announcements to follow and we’ll see you next week back on the 18th Hole! 

The Chipper

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 Posted by at 2:16 am
Jan 212014
 

Results of the Hole # 18 Conference Game Weekend:

Prediction:  Broncos 35, Patriots 30 Win:  I stated that 3rd down conversion rate and clock management would be the keys in this one.  The Denver machine controlled the game for almost 36 minutes and ran 71 plays.  “Blount Force Trauma” ran the ball against Denver 5 times for only 6 yards!!  They amassed a total of 27 first downs and were never threatened as the Broncos will represent the American Football Conference in Super Bowl XLVIII.

Prediction:  49ers 20, Seahawks 17 Loss:  This was a tough game to watch.  If you were a defensive enthusiast then it was right up your alley.  San Fran had control of this one as they totally swarmed and corralled Russell Wilson all night.  The slippery QB was held to zero yards on 5 carries and was sacked 4 times.   Two questionable calls from the officials took the game out of the 49ers hands.  Seattle came up with two crucial interceptions to seal the deal and they will represent the National Football Conference on February 2nd in New Jersey.

Record for the week:  1 – 1.  Total for the Year:  57– 38 – 1

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 Posted by at 2:09 am
Jan 172014
 

The Chippers Top 2

Conference Championship Games

Predictions for Hole  #18 Conference Championship Games:

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

The football world is abuzz about this game.  Brady vs. Manning.  I’ve never seen two QB’s playing against each other yet so what this game is all about is two great QB’s trying to keep the other teams offense off the field.  Eat up the clock.  That means converting on 3rd down and running the ball to move the chains.  Over the course of the season, NE ran the ball for an average of 129.1 yards per game – 9th in the league.  Denver averaged only 117.1 – 15th in the league.  Now on the defensive side, Denver was the 7th best against the run allowing only 101.7 yards per contest.  NE was almost at the bottom at 30th and allowed 134.1.  Comparing the conversion rates of the two teams shows that NE moved the chains on 3rd down only 37.6% (16th) where Denver converted at a 46.3% or 2nd best in the league.  That’s huge.  On defense, Denver stood at 16th in the league allowing only a 38.1%  conversion rate and NE 26th at 42.2%.  It’s true that the Bronco D will suffer from the loss of Chris Harris.  Brady may be able to exploit the backfield of Denver if he has the time to see downfield.  I believe that NE will be hard pressed to cover all of the offensive weapons that Denver will present and try to stop a better than average running game…Oh ya, the last time these two met up, Knowshon Moreno ran 37 times for 224 yards with the longest carry being only 18 yards.  That’s consistency and that moves the chains and that eats the clock which will keep Tom Terrific on the sideline.  Denver moves on to # 48.

Prediction:  Broncos 35, Patriots 30

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

As has been well documented, the 49ers have made two visits to Seattle the last two seasons and left losers by a combined 71-16 score. So it is pretty simple for the defending NFC champions,  The team has to ignore the recent past and concentrate on the present. That means doing what it has done in each of its last eight games. Win. One of those victories was a 19-17 triumph over the Seahawks in San Francisco. The Niners managed only one touchdown in the game but cut up Seattle’s defense for 163 yards on 33 attempts. During the team’s current winning streak, the 49ers are averaging 135.5 yards per game on the ground. All told, in six meetings versus Carroll’s Seahawks, Harbaugh’s club has managed five offensive touchdowns while settling for 17 field goals. In those encounters, San Francisco has scored exactly 100 points, an average 16.7 per contest.  This 49ers team is hot at the right time and Seattle just isn’t scoring enough points and they won’t against the leagues 2nd best defense.  SF goes on to their 8th Super Bowl.

Prediction:  49ers 20, Seahawks 17

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 Posted by at 5:24 pm
Jan 152014
 

Results of the Hole # 18 Divisional Game Weekend:

Prediction:  Seahawks 26, Saints 21 Win:  A stifling Defense shut down the Saints passing game in the 1st half and it was all over by then.  Jimmy Graham had 1 catch and it didn’t have any impact on the outcome of this one.  Russell Wilson passed for just over 100 yards as Marshawn Lynch and the Offensive line controlled this game from the get-go.

Prediction:  Patriots 32, Colts 24 Win:  Four interceptions later, Mr. Luck and the Colts were bounced from the playoffs.  A huge game from LeGarrette Blount totally got the Colts out of this game as the weakness of Indy was exposed. 

Prediction:  49ers 21, Panthers 20 Win:  Cam the cry-baby was sent packing by a totally superior defense in San Francisco.  What a battle it’s gonna be in Seattle this weekend.

Prediction:  Broncos 30, Chargers 25 Win:  The Broncos tried to give this away, but suspect clock management and undisciplined defensive linemen (5 encroachment penalties) sealed the deal in Denver. 

Record for the week:  4 – 0.  Total for the Year:  56– 37 – 1

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 Posted by at 1:56 am
Jan 102014
 

The Chippers Top 4

Divisional Round

Predictions for Hole 18 Divisional Games:

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks dismantled the Saints in Seattle 34 – 7 in Week 13.  New Orleans will be confident with their road win in Philly. This one is much closer this time around. I don’t see Seattle losing twice at home in a month where they’ve allowed 13.75 points a game.  The Saints will bring the heat and try to rattle the 2nd year QB Wilson. They must be able to contain him.  The Seahawks continue their home advantage.
Prediction:  Seahawks 26, Saints 21
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
The Colts have proven that they can beat top level teams on the road.  They beat an overrated Chief team with a mid-level QB.  Tom Brady is elite and I see the Patriots coming up with a way to shut down T.Y. Hilton and Robert Mathis.  They will run at Mathis to take him out and control the game on the ground.  Andrew Luck may be the comeback kid, but this hill will be harder to climb.  Rain will be a factor.
Prediction:  Patriots 32, Colts 24
San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers
Field position and 3rd down conversions:  That’s the tale of the tape in this one.  Carolina leads the league in 3rd down efficiency at 43.8%.  They go against the 6th best defense in SF at stopping 3rd down at 34.1%.  Don’t be the over on this one as is should be another slug fest with field goals a premium.  SF has Michael Crabtree back and a healthy Vernon Davis.  This should be an advantage as the Panthers will try to contain more weapons. Carolina sacked Kaepernick 6 times back in Week 10 and that will be on both teams minds.  SF is playing the most consistent now and that should be the difference in a low scoring battle.  SF moves on.
Prediction:  49ers 21, Panthers 20
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos
Don’t expect Manning to lose to the same team twice in a row, let alone in their own house. Denver must get out to an early substantial lead in an attempt to get the Chargers out of their impressive running game.  Clearly Denver has the more explosive and can score at will.  Oh ya…Peyton Manning is not Andy Dalton.  Broncos gallop onward.
Prediction:  Broncos 30, Chargers 25  
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 Posted by at 9:09 pm
Jan 082014
 

The First PSG 18th Hole 50 – 50 Challenge is off and running!  Thanks to all that have joined up to play.  You will be getting your updated standings shortly.  Good Luck to you all on the upcoming Divisional Games!

The Chipper

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 Posted by at 8:12 pm
Jan 082014
 

Results of Week # 18 Wild Card Weekend:

Prediction:  Colts 31, Chiefs 23  Win:  Man oh Man did that game set the bar for the weekend!!  You can’t go against Andrew Luck…regardless of where they play or who they play against.  Better watch out Patriots…you got a handful of a team that’s hot and very confident.

Prediction:  Eagles 27, Saints 24 Loss:  The Saints Defensive front line played up to expectations by holding the Eagles and their high powered rushing attach to just 80 yards.  The Saints controlled the ball for 35 plus minutes and had the last possession to kick a winning FG and earned a trip to Seattle and the # 1 seeded Seahawks. I think Brees has a chip on his shoulder.

Prediction:  Bengals 33, Chargers 21 Loss:  How does a team that had 27 first downs, 79 offensive plays, 439 total yards of offense and over 100 yards rushing at home lose a game 27 – 10?  I’ll tell you how…by committing 4 turnovers!!  It’ll kill you every time and Andy Dalton was in on 3 of those 4.  The Bengals continue the playoff curse and are one and done. The Chargers move on to play in Denver.  I hope San Diego isn’t counting their chickens just yet.

Prediction:  49ers 31, Packers 17 Win:  It wasn’t the coldest game on record in Green Bay, but it wasn’t the warmest either.  Aaron Rogers gave the Packers a fighting chance but the handicappers were spot on with SF being a 3 point favorite.  The game went back and forth throughout with neither team having more than a 6 point advantage.  SF moves on to face Carolina in what will be their 6th trip to the East Coast.  Will that have any effect on the 49ers?  

Record for the week:  2 – 2.  Total for the Year:  52– 37 – 1

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 Posted by at 8:07 pm