The Chipper’s SUPER BOWL XLVII Top 1 pick:

The two week break is finaly over (just about anyway) when we last enjoyed two pretty entertaining games that left us with the two “teams” that will beat each other to a pulp for the Lombardi Trophy and a claim to be the best team of the 2012 NFL season.  I say “teams” because this, in my opinion, will be a test between two groups of players with no larger than life superstars (except for Randy Moss who this week claimed that he’s the best wide reciever to ever play the game!) that have jelled at the right time of the year.  Both have mojo going and it’s too bad that only one will be able to claim the title.  If this was a seven game series, it would go all the way.  Let’s break down a couple of the major areas of the game and give you my thoughts as to who will have the advantage.

Quarterback:

This comes down to two things in my book:  1.  Colin Kaepernick is an incredibly talented athlete who, as time passes, will eventually become a pretty good QB by staying in the pocket.  As long as he doesn’t suffer a shoulder injury, this kid will go a long way and SF will be an upper level team for years.  Alex Smith will be gone next year so there won’t be any QB controvery. But, for now, he’s inexperienced and I don’t believe that because of the last two games, he will bounce back from a mistake (and he will make one) at this level of pressure. He’s still a young kid and Baltimore will figure out a way to contain him.  2.  Joe Flacco has a crap lode more experience under his belt and he’s been to the low’s that a pro QB can suffer and that’s why he and the Ravens are on a role.  He’s thrown for 8 TD’s and no picks in the playoffs because he’s being patient (and has been a little lucky…watch the Denver game replay) and is letting the game come to him.  They both have rockets for arms but because the kid will be a littly nervous, he’s going to throw some high passes in the beginning and that will put the 49ers in an early hole.  Besides, he was focused on trademarking “Kaepernicking”.  Kiss this Colin…

Advantage:  Flacco

Running Game:

There’s little to debate in this category.  Both teams have an incredibly talented starting backfield.  The difference is the backups.  Bernard Pierce, a rookie from Temple, runs like he’s Robert Smith (Vikings star) and has the power of the Nigerian Nightmare – Christian Okoye (KC lore) and that means very little drop off when he spells Ray Rice.  Rice seems to have cured his fumbling problems.  For SF, Frank Gore is the real deal.  He may be slowing down some, but has played through the slump of the middle of the season and is every bit as productive of late as Ray Rice.  LeMichael James and Kendall Hunter are a great pair of backups that give SF a different look to take advantage of an aging Raven D.

Advantage:  Even

Offense vs. Deffense:

This is another area of the game that both teams have strength in various places that can turn the game.  The Ravens have a wildly experienced pack of players and we all know the stories.  Ed Reed is the thief in the backfield always watching the QB eyes and jumps ahead of the throw to stop a big drive when needed.  Suggs, Lewis, Ellerbe and Kruger are playing like they’re only 28 years old apiece and something is helping them overcome these road games.  The magic will continue for the Ravens on the D side.  If it wasn’t for the injury to SF’s Dustin Smith, I’d give the overall edge to SF’s D over Baltimore’s offense but that injury has brought the D line back to earth the last month as Aldon Smith has disappeared in the sack world.  Because of that, the Ravens O line will have the advantage and control the clock, with superior protection for Flacco and generating the running game that will keep the ball out of Kaepernicks hands just enough.  This may change the game plan for SF and force the 49ers into more of a passing game than they expect.  SF has more than their share of quality recievers with Crabtree, Davis and yes, Randy Moss.  Keep an eye on him as he may just be riding off into the sunset with an MVP perforance.  The Ravens can stack up their receiving corp with anyone in the league.  Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin are threats anywhere at anytime on the field with Dennis Pitta being a reliable outlet.  Ray Rice can catch a pass as well as any back.

Advantage:  Ravens

What’s going to happen:

Folks, this is going to be a close one.  You should put some cabbage on one of the kickers being the games MVP…..NOT!!!  It will go to the wire and possibly be the 1st Super Bowl to go to OT!  the Brothers Harbough will try to out smart each other but it’s gonna come down to the turnovers and penalties.  Overall, the Ravens have the experience and Flacco has the patience to get the job done, so here it is:

Prediction:   Ravens 27  49ers 21

Make some guacamole and sit down to enjoy this gem!  They don’t come around very often.

Championship Weekend Chipper’s Top 2

Game # 1:  San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons  3:00 pm Eastern

The 49ers are riding high on the heals of a sound beating of the talented Green Bay Packers when, on the first offensive possesion, Colin Kaepernick shocked the home crowd with a quick pick-6 and a 7 point hole.  The 2nd year kid made an incredible turnaround and 441 yards and 4 touchdowns later, dispensed the Packers onto their offseason.  The 49ers are a 4.5 point favorite on the road against a team that sports 5th year star QB Matt Ryan that has an un-thinkable 20-1 home record!  While it’s true that it seemed like the Falcons where doing everything they could to give the Seahawks the game last week, they eeked out the win and are hosting the NFC Championship Game as the #1 seed.  Both teams have a very deep roster on offense that can list a super star at almost every position.  On defense, it’s clear that the edge would go to the 49ers although, some teams found a way to run successfully against them and put up some decent points (Seattle 42, NYG 26, NE 34 & GB last week 31).  This Atlanta offense is different.  It has the ultimate weapon on their side and that is Tony Gonzalez.  There are very few that can cover this guy and he  is clutch when it comes to getting the 1st down, moving the clock and the chains.  I know that Kaepernick is on a roll and can’t wait to go at it again, but Atlanta will come up with a plan to shadow him just enough to pressure him into mistakes and keep him from putting up monster rushing #’s.  Michael Turner is running like a man possesed as well and Atlanta’s defense will do enough to get the crowd going and pump it up for the home team.  Atlanta moves on to the Super Bowl in the upset.

Prediction:  Falcons  31  49ers 28

Game # 2:  Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots  6:30 pm Eastern

This is a clasic game where there is one team that has absolutely nothing to lose.  The Ravens go to Foxbora a heavy underdog knowing that this could be the last game of a storied career for their defensive captain Ray Lewis.  In an epic back and forth battle last week in Denver (officiating notwithstanding) Baltimore went toe to toe with the almost double digit favorite on the road and came away with a crazy double OT victory that sent who most thought was the MVP and come-back player of the year in Peyton Manning packing up his locker for the year.  The Ravens have all their key veterans back in every position and you can bet your Buick that Ray Rice won’t be droppin the rock in this one.  Baltimore knows that QB Tom Brady has trouble when the pressure comes at him up the middle and the Patriots seem to be a one-dimensional team with little to no ground game.  Steven Ridley is a decent threat, but not at this level and not against a veteran D like the Ravens who’ll be frothin at the mouth to get it on!  Joe Flacco showed that he can toss the long ball with impressive accuracy and having a great possesion receiver like Anquan Bolden is a big confidence builder when the chains gotta move.  Special Teams play for Baltimore is a huge advantage as well with the big returns by WR Jacoby Jones.  Another underdog gets it done in the night-cap and the Ravens move on the meet the Falcons in Super Bowl XIVII.

Prediction:  Ravens 34 Patriots 31 

The Chipper’s Top 4

Posting this in a different position this time…front and center.

This is where the rubber meets the road…The four toughest games of the year to pick.  A couple of these games could go either way and the other two are pretty much a lock.  But, the football is an odd shaped object and you never know how it’s gonna bounce, so……………..

Game # 1: Saturday  Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos.

At first look, this is a no-brainer right?  Right…the Ravens don’t have a chance in hell to win this game so I’m just gonna put the score down right now:

Prediction:  Broncos 34 (Goodby Ray) Ravens 20

Game # 2: Saturday  Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers

The Packers are the underdog in this one…even with arguably the best QB in the league in Aaron Rodgers.  They’ve gotten back almost everyone from injury in the nick of time (Jordy Nelson is still iffy).  The GB defense is starting to play better too.  The weather conditions should be pretty good and that favors the far superior Packers QB in the passing game.  They run the ball just enough to keep defenses honest and when needed, Rodgers can scramble with the best of them. He did get sacked a league worst 51 times in the regular season though and SF will look to expand on that.  The Packers have too many weapons and they’ll keep the 49ers D guessing as they go on the road and get the the win.

Prediction:  Packers 27  49ers 21

Game # 3: Sunday Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Seahawks go on another cross-country road trip and this time they’ll have a fight on there hands.  They didn’t get to play RGIII at 100% so we’ll never know how they really would have made out.  Seattle lost a key player on D last week for the remainder of the playoffs and that will leave a huge hole to fill.  They have good enough depth though and the backfield basically has another set of linebackers to support the run and get after a statuesque Matt Ryan.  This game will mark the 5th road game out of the last 7 weeks, so look for a let -down as the Falcons have a fantastic home record in the Ryan era of 19 -1!  It looks like the end of the road this week for the road underdog. 

Prediction:  Falcons 31 Seahawks 21

Game # 4: Sunday  Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots

(See Game # 1 summary above) 

Prediction:  Patriots  42  Texans  24

The Bulletin Box

And that’s the end of the regular season in the NFL…and what an end it was.  Not only were there some really exciting games that were played that determined the playoff seedings, there were was an extreme amount of excitement and tension for the prizes that eventually did and didn’t get awarded in PSG. 

First of all, a huge round of applause goes out to the 20 of you that won the PSG $50 6-Pack prize.  Everyone likes to see their name in lights, so here they are: 

White Tee: arhedia17, billy, brian, broncofan, chrisgizzy, codysmith, golfking2005, HowBoutThemGilas, jets2436, JKW, jlew, Leeny and SchaeferMan.  On the Blue Tee:  Annie, Bantam12, Deerhunter, Eagle, Riley, Seahawk and Spartan.  Congratulations to all of you!!!  The checks are in the mail today.  That concludes the weekly 6-Pack Game, but stay tuned as there may be some other clever idea in the works! 

Ok, here we go the final hole of the round for 2012…the 18^th.  This is a par 5 so remember that it plays into any tie-breaking calculations.  This hole is different from the first 17 we’ve played.  It’s an aggregate of how you do starting with next week’s Wild Card Games all the way through the Super Bowl.  There are a total of 11 games that you will pick.  The 4 WC games will be presented and you will have the ability to pick the 2 games on Saturday independent of the 2 Sunday games.  This is just like how you could just pick the Thursday games without having to pick the rest.  The following week, you’ll do the same thing with the Divisional Games.  Then the following week, you pick the 2 Conference Championship Games and after that – The Super Bowl. 

You’ll need to get at least 9 of the 11 correct to get a Birdie or better for those that are competing for the end of year prize.  I have tallied up the under par scores through 17 holes and on the Blue tees, there are 3 of you with 3 Birds or Better and 6 of you with 2 Birds or Better.  On the White Tee, there is a run-away train as one player has 6 Birdies or Better and no-one can catch them.  These prizes will be awarded at the conclusion of the 18^th Hole.  

Now for the drama that was the PSG 2^nd  Chance Survivor Pool.  There were two entries going into the final regular season week and both of them took the one of only 3 home teams that lost – New Orleans!  Rumor on the street is that one of them originally decided to take Pittsburg and then at some point must have changed their minds and went with the Saints instead… 

Be sure to check out the new “From the Stands” feature on the home page of PigSkinGolf where you can put up some smack, do some braggin or set up some side stuff.  Whatever you do, it’s a cool way of communicating with the other players. 

Be watching for the end of the round survey from Survey Monkey asking some very simple, but important questions about this unique game. 

That’s all for now, Happy New Year to all of you from PigSkinGolf and thank you very much for playing. 

Brian

The Bulletin Box

Merry Christmas to all of you and your families across the country.  Thank you very much for playing PigSkinGolf and I wish you the best of Luck and Health and Safety for this Holiday Season and in 2013.

Please keep all of the families of Newtown CT in your thoughts and prayers…..Good Luck to you this week.

Brian