SUPER BOWL 50

CONGRATULATIONS TO THE

Denver Broncos !!     24 – 10 Champions!!

Hole # 18 Chipper’s SB XLVIII Pick

It’s been almost two weeks and I darn near forgot how to do this!!  I haven’t really paid too much attention to all the hoopla going on this last couple weeks but I can tell you that being out here on the East Coast, you can’t walk down the street without overhearing a conversation about this game Sunday night.  Regardless of the fact that the contest is between to almost West Coast teams, the marquee value of Peyton Manning is global and because Richard Sherman ran his mouth and Marshawn Lynch can’t put twelve words together, the intrigue is growing daily.  You’ve heard all the chatter about the best Defense on the planet and it’s attempt to be able to control the record setting offense in Denver.  There’s lot’s of angles and discussions about what will happen.  My dad was a crazy defensive killer linebacker back in the day (could have played for the Colts with Johnny U) and he reminds me that defense can play anywhere in any conditions.  Pop, I know that Seattle is as good a defensive unit as has ever been.  They led the league with 28 interceptions and in all of their games, held the opposing offenses to only 273.6 total yards per game.  They tallied 44 sacks (8th best in the league) and only let teams score an amazingly low 14.4 points per game.  In the playoffs, the Seahawks have allowed only 16 points in two games, both at home.  Now on the road they’re a little more Sea-Pigeon like:  The D has allowed just under 292 yards per game, with a big 4.2 yards per carry rushing.  That bodes well for a better than average Denver rushing attack.  This game will be totally different for Seattle as not one player on the roster has any Super Bowl experience.  Can young QB Russell stand up to the pressure?  He cannot get into a shooting match with Manning.  As good as Seattle’s defense is, they haven’t played an offense with this many weapons.  Denver is at full capacity – remember that two of their offensive line starters have been out all year – and looks like it would take 14 guys on defense to cover all of the possible targets coming at them.  You know all the names and know that the Denver offense is the best statistically in the history of the game.  The old Man(ning) has seen it all and I doubt he will not be concerned with butterflies in the belly come kick-off.  The key to this game, in my estimation, is how successful Denver’s defense is at containing Russell Wilson and Lynch.  I don’t see Seattle scoring more than 17-20 points and that’s not gonna cut it.  The Seahawk defense will have it’s work cut out for them on Sunday.  I believe that the Broncos will control the clock with precision passing and timely delayed runs and counters to move the sticks.  It’s important that touchdowns be scored and not to settle for red zone field goals.  Unless you didn’t know already, this is the Chinese Year of the Horse – it’s written in the stars my friends…Today is the 3rd anniversary of my dear mothers passing and you know that she’s gonna get that trophy to Peyton and my beloved Denver Broncos for the 3rd time in their storied history….so just in case you didn’t catch my drift, here’s my vision -

Prediction:    Broncos 27, Seahawks 20

The Chippers Top 2

Conference Championship Games

Predictions for Hole  #18 Conference Championship Games:

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

The football world is abuzz about this game.  Brady vs. Manning.  I’ve never seen two QB’s playing against each other yet so what this game is all about is two great QB’s trying to keep the other teams offense off the field.  Eat up the clock.  That means converting on 3^rd down and running the ball to move the chains.  Over the course of the season, NE ran the ball for an average of 129.1 yards per game – 9^th in the league.  Denver averaged only 117.1 – 15^th in the league.  Now on the defensive side, Denver was the 7^th best against the run allowing only 101.7 yards per contest.  NE was almost at the bottom at 30^th and allowed 134.1.  Comparing the conversion rates of the two teams shows that NE moved the chains on 3^rd down only 37.6% (16^th) where Denver converted at a 46.3% or 2^nd best in the league.  That’s huge.  On defense, Denver stood at 16^th in the league allowing only a 38.1%  conversion rate and NE 26^th at 42.2%.  It’s true that the Bronco D will suffer from the loss of Chris Harris.  Brady may be able to exploit the backfield of Denver if he has the time to see downfield.  I believe that NE will be hard pressed to cover all of the offensive weapons that Denver will present and try to stop a better than average running game…Oh ya, the last time these two met up, Knowshon Moreno ran 37 times for 224 yards with the longest carry being only 18 yards.  That’s consistency and that moves the chains and that eats the clock which will keep Tom Terrific on the sideline.  Denver moves on to # 48.

Prediction:  Broncos 35, Patriots 30

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

As has been well documented, the 49ers have made two visits to Seattle the last two seasons and left losers by a combined 71-16 score. So it is pretty simple for the defending NFC champions,  The team has to ignore the recent past and concentrate on the present. That means doing what it has done in each of its last eight games. Win. One of those victories was a 19-17 triumph over the Seahawks in San Francisco. The Niners managed only one touchdown in the game but cut up Seattle’s defense for 163 yards on 33 attempts. During the team’s current winning streak, the 49ers are averaging 135.5 yards per game on the ground. All told, in six meetings versus Carroll’s Seahawks, Harbaugh’s club has managed five offensive touchdowns while settling for 17 field goals. In those encounters, San Francisco has scored exactly 100 points, an average 16.7 per contest.  This 49ers team is hot at the right time and Seattle just isn’t scoring enough points and they won’t against the leagues 2^nd best defense.  SF goes on to their 8^th Super Bowl.

Prediction:  49ers 20, Seahawks 17

The Chippers Top 4

Divisional Round

Predictions for Hole 18 Divisional Games:

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks dismantled the Saints in Seattle 34 – 7 in Week 13.  New Orleans will be confident with their road win in Philly. This one is much closer this time around. I don’t see Seattle losing twice at home in a month where they’ve allowed 13.75 points a game.  The Saints will bring the heat and try to rattle the 2^nd year QB Wilson. They must be able to contain him.  The Seahawks continue their home advantage.

Prediction:  Seahawks 26, Saints 21

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots

The Colts have proven that they can beat top level teams on the road.  They beat an overrated Chief team with a mid-level QB.  Tom Brady is elite and I see the Patriots coming up with a way to shut down T.Y. Hilton and Robert Mathis.  They will run at Mathis to take him out and control the game on the ground.  Andrew Luck may be the comeback kid, but this hill will be harder to climb.  Rain will be a factor.

Prediction:  Patriots 32, Colts 24

San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers

Field position and 3^rd down conversions:  That’s the tale of the tape in this one.  Carolina leads the league in 3^rd down efficiency at 43.8%.  They go against the 6^th best defense in SF at stopping 3^rd down at 34.1%.  Don’t be the over on this one as is should be another slug fest with field goals a premium.  SF has Michael Crabtree back and a healthy Vernon Davis.  This should be an advantage as the Panthers will try to contain more weapons. Carolina sacked Kaepernick 6 times back in Week 10 and that will be on both teams minds.  SF is playing the most consistent now and that should be the difference in a low scoring battle.  SF moves on.

Prediction:  49ers 21, Panthers 20

San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos

Don’t expect Manning to lose to the same team twice in a row, let alone in their own house. Denver must get out to an early substantial lead in an attempt to get the Chargers out of their impressive running game.  Clearly Denver has the more explosive and can score at will.  Oh ya…Peyton Manning is not Andy Dalton.  Broncos gallop onward.

Prediction:  Broncos 30, Chargers 25  

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The Chipper